LOS ALAMITOS, Calif., 21 December 2023 – Leaders of the IEEE Computer Society (CS), the leading computer science and engineering member community, today announced its annual scorecard, assessing 2023 technology predictions against their current technological states. This year, AI-based solutions ranked highest in their evaluation.
“The most technological advancement and most maturity in absolute terms, is attributed to Generative AI,” said Dejan Milojicic, 2014 IEEE CS president and current HPE Fellow and VP at Hewlett Packard Labs. “It is also the only technology that was marked with broad adoption. This is not a surprising outcome given the huge growth in both advancement and adoption of generative AI.”
In addition, Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) yielded the highest relative difference from original predictions. Leaders ascribe this technology’s success to overall advancements in Generative AI and growing consumer access to the capabilities. AI-assisted DevOps—the integration and automation of software development (Dev) and IT operations (Ops)—also had the fourth largest growth over original thoughts, attributed, once more, to overall Generative AI increases.
“2023 was a huge year for AI in all forms,” noted Milojicic. “Its influence on a wide variety of other technological solutions created a ripple effect that has launched a whole new set of possibilities.”
Key technology observations
In addition to AI, this year has impacted the development of several reviewed technologies, including:
- Disinformation Detection/Correction witnessed the third largest climb in the technology rankings compared to the beginning of the year, due in part to technological advancements and market need.
- Autonomous Robots & Brain-Machine I/F (interface) still have prototype-level maturity but remain a research area of focus.
- 3D Printing in Personalized Healthcare emphasis slowed down from predictions as the healthcare industry settled into a more normative state with COVID. In addition, as the technology matures in particular environments, e.g., dentistry, products naturally have become more accessible.
- IT for Sustainability saw a larger decline in focus, potentially due to the aftereffects of economic and geopolitical factors and incremental progress.
- Space ITC (Information Technology and Communication), had one of the most accurate predictions this year, balancing its lower-ranked impact on humanity, which is likely due to the large horizon to adoption, with its potential.
The figures below demonstrate the shift in predictions between the final scorecard and the original report for Technical Success versus Impact to Humanity. The size of the bubble is proportional to relative market adoption.
The delta of the advancement of each given technology over the course of the year, between the prediction versus the scorecard, is shown in the figure below. This figure includes the delta for Technology Success in 2023, Impact to Humanity, Maturity in 2023, and Market Adoption in 2023.
“We are pleased how our original grades stood the one-year test of the time, as reflected in overall A/B grading, one of the highest in our 10-year history of predictions,” explained Milojicic. “The biggest differences in predictions were reflected in an unusually high growth of generative AI and slowdown of COVID-related technologies. Our technology predictions process continues to improve year-over-year. This year we introduced a more rigorous overall grading that will serve us for the years to come.”
The 2024 IEEE CS Technology Predictions will be revealed in January. Sign-up now to receive immediate notification of their availability.
Evaluation Committee
This year’s IEEE CS leaders who were responsible for the initial technology predictions and subsequent review include: Ali Abedi, Mohamed Amin, Rosa M Badia, Mary Baker, Greg Byrd, Mercy Chelangat, Tom Coughlin, Jayakrishnan Divakaran, Paolo Faraboschi, Nicola Ferrier, Eitan Frachtenberg, Ada Gavrilovska, Alfredo Goldman, Francesca, Iacopi, Vincent Kaabunga, Hironori Kasahara, Witold Kinsner, Danny Lange, Phil Laplante, Katherine Mansfield, Avi Mendelson, Cecilia Metra, Dejan Milojicic, Puneet Mishra, Chris Miyachi, Khaled Mokhtar, Bob Parro, Nita Patel, Alexandra Posoldova, Marina Ruggieri, Roberto Saracco, Tomy Sebastian, Saurabh Sinha, Michelle Tubb, John Verboncoeur, and Irene Pazos Viana.
The committee would like to especially acknowledge Roberto Saracco, who died earlier this year, for his decade-long contributions to IEEE CS and these annual technology predictions.
“With a lot of sadness, we would like to express tribute to one of our most distinguished technology predictions team members. We and the whole world have lost Roberto Saracco. The impact he has left cannot be overemphasized. May his soul rest in peace! He will be remembered,” concluded Milojicic.
About the IEEE Computer Society
Engaging computer engineers, scientists, academia, and industry professionals from all areas and levels of computing, the IEEE Computer Society (CS) serves as the world’s largest and most established professional organization of its type. IEEE CS sets the standard for the education and engagement that fuels continued global technological advancement. Through conferences, publications, and programs that inspire dialogue, debate, and collaboration, IEEE CS empowers, shapes, and guides the future of not only its nearly 400,000 community members, but the greater industry, enabling new opportunities to better serve our world. Visit computer.org for more information.
